Maybe you’ve been scrolling through Zillow for what feels like years, watching those dream homes slip by, not because you don’t want them, but because the math just hasn’t math-ed. That 7% mortgage rate staring back at you feels like a brick wall.
Or maybe you’re on the other side. You’re a homeowner, sitting on a ton of equity, hearing the market is “slow,” and you’re wondering, “Is now the *worst* time to sell? Should I just wait?”
For what feels like forever, the housing market has been in this weird, frozen limbo. Prices haven’t crashed, but sales have slumped. Everyone’s just been… waiting. Waiting for a sign, for a break, for something to change.
Well, what if I told you that according to some of the top economists in real estate, that long-awaited change is finally on the calendar? And it’s got a specific date: 2026.
Today, I'm diving deep into a major new forecast that just dropped from the National Association of Realtors. Their Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, stood up at a huge conference and made a pretty bold prediction: 2026 is set to be the year the housing market makes a real comeback.
This isn’t just vague optimism. We’re talking about a projected 14% jump in home sales nationwide. After a year of basically going sideways in 2025, that’s a massive shift.
But here’s what’s crucial: This isn’t a prediction of another crazy, everyone-loses-their-minds bidding war frenzy. Yun is painting a picture of a recovery. A market that’s finally starting to move again, but with some new, very important rules.
So, whether you’re a first-time buyer who’s been sidelined, a move-up buyer sitting on equity, or just someone fascinated by the economy, this forecast gives us a roadmap. We’re going to break down the three key drivers behind this prediction, the big warning about a divided market, and what it all means for you.
The 3 Engines of the 2026 Comeback
The Affordability Engine (Slowly) Starts Back Up
The biggest blocker has been mortgage rates. But the needle is finally moving. After hovering around 7%, we’ve seen them dip into the mid-6% range. Yun forecasts they’ll average around 6% in 2026.
Now, hear this: Don’t expect 3% rates. That’s not happening. But even this modest decline is a big deal. Why? Because it directly impacts monthly payments. A drop from 6.7% to 6% on a $400,000 loan saves you about $175 a month. That’s real money that could push thousands of waiting buyers off the fence.
The Fundamentals Are Weirdly Strong
Look beyond the rates, and the foundation is solid:
Steady job growth is continuing. People with paychecks can buy houses.
Most homeowners are sitting on huge equity cushions. They’re not distressed.
Mortgage applications are up 31% compared to last year! The pent-up demand is very, very real.
Builders & Sellers Are Adapting
For existing homes, Sellers are learning they need to price right. Yun shared a critical insight: if your house sits, you’ll likely need to cut the price.
0-14 days on market: Average 4.9% price cut.
Over 120 days on market: Average 13.8% price cut.
The message is clear: realistic pricing will be the key to a successful 2026 sale.
The BIG Warning: A Tale of Two Markets
But—and this is a huge but—this rebound won’t be equal.
NAR’s Deputy Chief Economist, Jessica Lautz, called it the market of “Haves and Have-Nots.”
The Haves: Repeat buyers, especially baby boomers with decades of equity. They’re often buying with cash, dominating the upper end of the market. Sales in the $750k-$1M range are already strong.
The Have-Nots: First-time buyers. They hit an all-time low of just 21% of buyers. The median age of a first-timer is now **40**. They’re battling high rents, student debt, and scarce starter-home inventory.
So, the comeback is coming, but it will be led by move-up buyers and cushioned by equity. Getting into the game for the first time will remain the steepest climb.
So, let’s recap. The 2026 forecast from NAR is signaling a turning point.
Sales are projected to surge 14% as lower rates (around 6%) unlock demand.
Prices will still rise, about 4%, due to job growth and limited supply—no crash in sight.
It will be a smarter, more balanced market where correct pricing is king.
But the gap between existing homeowners and first-timers will remain the market’s biggest challenge.
What does this mean for you?
If you’re buying: Start your mortgage pre-approval process *now*. Get your finances organized. Understand the down payment assistance programs out there. When 2026 hits, you want to be ready to move, not starting from scratch.
If you’re selling: Work with an agent who understands data-driven pricing. The market will be moving, but homes priced like it’s 2021 will just sit. Realism equals a faster sale.
The feeling of stagnation is about to lift. The gears are starting to turn again.
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